Derby della moribund Madonnina

Mancini’s arrival heightens enthusiasm for a derby increasingly reliant on its illustrious history. 

Roberto Mancini faces a difficult start following his second appointment as the coach of Inter

                There was a time not so long ago when the world’s best players would do battle in the showpiece event of Italian football. Milan and Inter, constant stalwarts both at home and in Europe, would captivate the planet with their world-class players. Today the derby arguably reflects the state of Serie A more generally; both Inter and Milan are no longer exponents of elite European football and currently find themselves 9^th and 7^th respectively. Nonetheless, after modest starts both teams still harbour genuine Champions League ambitions, and with Roberto Mancini back as head coach of Inter, he will be looking to leapfrog his neighbours in the table.

               Two extremely poor performances against Parma and Hellas Verona was enough for Inter’s president Eric Thohir to finally lose patience with Walter Mazzari. The sacking is an interesting one. At times Inter have been woeful this season. Mazzari’s refusal to start matches with anything other than a 3-5-2 for example, made his team become far too predictable.  Yet throughout his reign, Inter’s performances have been littered with individual errors that are hard to place at just the manager’s door - these mistakes have been such a common occurrence this season that both Mauro Icardi and Juan Jesus have blamed Mazzari’s sacking on the players ahead of anyone else - thus begging the question as to whether Mancini will do any better with the same group of players at his disposal. In any case, the appointment of Mancini is a popular one amongst Inter fans. During Mazzari’s penultimate game for example – a 2-0 defeat away at Parma - Inter supporters unveiled a banner asking for their former manager to come home. Though Mancini has not been presented with the easiest of starts, facing both Milan and Roma in his first two games, Thohir may have timed Mancini’s appointment to perfection. Inter’s president clearly realises that there are quality players at Inter, and a Champions League spot would still be attainable if Mancini can steady the ship quickly, beginning with their match against Milan tomorrow.

            It is expected that Mancini will revert to a back four, a defensive tactic he has used often throughout his managerial career. Ranocchia, who has been in good form this season, should partner Juan at centre back, with Nemanja Vidic most likely to miss out from the back three that played against Verona. Problems may arise however at full back for Mancini. Though Nagatomo and Dodo (both of whom are considered specialist wing backs) were bought solely to fit in to Mazzari’s 3-5-2, Mancini’s hands are tied due to the absence of D’Ambrosini and Campagnaro through injury. Nagatomo and Dodo’s propensity to play slightly higher and wider will leave space next to the centre backs for Milan to exploit, and this could tempt Inzaghi in to start Torres. A natural number 9 and eager to impress, Torres will look to utilise any space in between and behind Inter’s back four.

Historically Mancini teams are associated with a 4-2-3-1 formation, but he can be flexible (just consider his 3-5-2 at Galatasaray) and his comments regarding Mateo Kovacic suggest that he will play a 4-3-1-2, allowing Kovacic to play as a number ten. Consequently, Inter fans can expect to see most of the play coming through Kovacic who Mancini claims is Inters most talented player. Mancini has already encouraged Inter to move the ball quicker during transition and so he is likely to pack the midfield with athleticism and power; Freddy Guarin, Yann M’Vila and ZdavkoKuzmanovic may provide the drive and dynamism needed to attack at speed andstart Mancini’s second reign in style. The most likely starters up front are Icardi and Palacio, with Danny Osvaldo starting from the bench. Whilst Icardi has been in good form this season, scoring 7 in 10 Serie A games, Palacio has struggled for form and is yet to score. There is an argument to play Osvaldo who, despite playing an intermittent role this season due to injury, is more athletic and combative than Palacio. Even though Osvaldo seems to suit Mancini’s preference of power and dynamism, Palacio’s unselfish work ethic should see him earn a starting berth come Sunday.

Mateo Kovacic is expected to blossom under the tutelage of Roberto Mancini

What is fascinating about this derby is that both teams are in a similar state of flux. Pippo Inzaghi’s Milan have been equally inconsistent of late and go into the derby in danger of extinguishing any early season excitement. Milan started the season well, winning their first two games, scoring plenty of goals and playing with an enthusiasm that had been absent under both Max Allegri and Clarence Seedorf. But old habits die hard, and despite Inzaghi’s attempts to recruit honest players into the Rossoneri squad, there are signs that Milan are slipping towards the standards of last season. Injuries have not been kind to them – Inzaghi has had to field eleven different starting teams already this season – and whilst they possess talent going forwards – Milan were the highest scorers in Serie A until Juventus’ 7-0 demolition of Parma two weeks ago - there is concern defensively. Milan are now expected to go into the derby without Alex, who suffered a thigh strain in training on Friday, but will be boosted by the return to the squad of Riccardo Montolivo, who broke his tibia last season. With Ignacio Abate potentially out as well, Milan look short at the back and Inter should be able to make the most of this. This defensive fragility may be further worsened by the potential loss of Nigel De Jong, who will face a late fitness test on Sunday.
Irrespective of De Jong’s fitness, Inzaghi is expected to go with a 4-3-2-1. Michael Essien (on the presumption that De Jong is not fit) and Sulley Muntari are likely to sit in front of the back four with the job of restricting ball supply into Inter’s Kovacic. In front of these two we will probably see Bonaventura from the right, El-Shawaary from the left and Menez through the middle, with Torres on his own up front. This system would allow Inzaghi to play a recognised number 9 who will look to stretch Inter’s back four. There are goals here for Milan. El-Shawaary has shown glimpses of the brilliant form he was in not so long ago, scoring a great goal against Sampdoria in the lead up to the international break and playing equally as well when he came on for Italy against Croatia a week later. Whilst on their day attacking talent such as Jeremy Menez, Keizuke Honda and Giacomo Bonaventura, are more than capable of opening up a defence that has been as leaky as Inter’s this season.

               
           This has the makings of an intriguing derby, not least because both teams possess attacking talent that is far greater than the defensive talent on show. Moreover, whilst the match may not currently showcase the quality seen in bygone times, there are players on both sides that have the potential to develop into world-class players. In truth there is not a great deal to choose between the two teams and the result could go either way. However the potential for Milan to lose Alex, Abate and De Jong will not fill Milan fans with confidence and considering the surge of excitement that so often comes with the appointment of a new manager, I expect to see Inter run out winners. Just.

2-1

How the bittersweet international break could sway the clash between two fading heavyweights

Arsenal and United face each other for the first time this season on Saturday, but how has the international break helped and hindered both teams? 

The first meeting between Arsenal and Man United in the 2004-2005 season is arguably the most renowned and memorable match in Premier League history, as the ‘Battle of the Buffet’ saw two English football giants going punch for punch, with United controversially running out 2-0 winners and ending the Gunners' 49 game unbeaten streak. Their feisty and heated encounters were the pinnacle of British sporting entertainment, personified in the dugout by the imperious Alex Ferguson and Arsene Wenger, and on the pitch by the midfield generals of Roy Keane and Patrick Vieira. Fast forward 10 years though, and we are presented with the first contest this season between these erstwhile behemoths; a contest that now smells more of desperation and fear than expectation and confidence. Both sides go into Saturday's match in poor form, as they have secured only two victories each in their last 4 league matches. It seems like the international break arrived at the perfect time for Arsenal and United, allowing them to lick their wounds and regroup for a fortnight. With the internationals now over, which of the two has recovered better for Saturday’s encounter?

English representatives from both Man United and Arsenal gave a good account of themselves in England’s 3-1 wins over both Slovenia and Scotland. Wayne Rooney found the net 3 times and seemed much more comfortable up front than he has been in recent times, indicating that he is finally getting used to holding the captaincy of both club and country. Louis van Gaal will be needing his captain at the top of his game to overturn their rivals in the hunt for a place in the top four. Luke Shaw and Chris Smalling also featured, but Shaw is a doubt for the weekend having sustained a knock against Scotland.

Rooney, Wilshere, and Welbeck have all returned to duty in fine form. Photograph: Sky Sports

The signs are even more encouraging for Arsenal. Danny Welbeck, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Jack Wilshere were hugely influential in both matches, with Welbeck nabbing two goals and Chamberlain scoring and providing some much needed power to England’s attack. Significantly, Wilshere produced two man-of-the-match performances from the deep midfield position. After two encouraging displays from Arsenal's English contingent, Wenger will, most probably, choose to start all of these players on Saturday. It will be interesting to see though, as Daniel Storey speculates, whether Wilshere can be as effective for Arsenal in the deep lying role as he is for England. There seems to be increased pressure on Wenger to play Wilshere in the same holding midfield role preferred by Hodgson. With Arsenal continuing to look lightweight in midfield and leak goals against the more beatable teams, Wilshere has been touted recently by pundits as being a viable option in defensive midfield. Though Arteta will return to the squad for Saturday, Wenger may be tempted to let Wilshere sit alongside Flamini, protecting the back four, and allowing Ramsey, Chamberlain, and Sanchez more freedom. Though certainly aware of his side's defensive frailties, Wenger will no doubt be looking to capitalise on van Gaal's makeshift defense too, and Wilshere playing as a deep-lying playmaker may give the Gunners an advantage in this respect.

Outside of England duty though, United may feel like the international break for their foreign stars has been a hindrance to their preparation for the battle against their old rival. In spite of van Persie’s goal and assist in the Netherlands’ 6-0 drubbing of Latvia, United have been left with more problems than solutions as Shaw, Di María and De Gea are all awaiting late fitness tests for Saturday after suffering knocks in the last week. Furthermore, and perhaps most worryingly, is the absence of Daley Blind through injury, which van Gaal confirmed “will be a long story…but not six months or something like that”. Blind has begun his life at Old Trafford well, keeping things simple when in possession and, more importantly, protecting United’s fragile back four when not. Though it was Di María’s transfer from Madrid to Manchester that grabbed the headlines in August, the capture of Blind has worked well so far for van Gaal's side. Blind has gone about his business effectively, and United’s defense has most certainly benefited from Blind’s defensive contribution, with van Gaal’s side winning half the games Blind has started, and none that he hasn’t. Van Gaal did provide a silver lining for United fans though, as the vacant defensive midfield role left by Blind should be assumed by Michael Carrick, whom he declares "is ready to play".Though Carrick has not played too often this season, he should provide some much needed defensive support to Fellaini in the middle.

Daley Blind has contributed well to United's defensive stability. Infographic: WhoScored Photograph: Infographic: WhoScored

Unfortunately for United, Wenger will seek further encouragement from his south American superstar Alexis Sánchez who, after scoring for his national side yet again, has 8 goals in his last 6 matches for club and country, and 14 already for the season. The indefatigable Sánchez seems to show no signs of losing his goal scoring form, and Wenger will be looking to his star player to take advantage of Blind's absence.

The only worrying development from the international break for Arsène Wenger is the continued poor form of Arsenal's star player of last season. Once again Aaron Ramsey failed to make an impression this week, this time for Wales, as they drew against Belgium in qualifying for the 2016 Euros. Having recently admitted to a lack of fitness, and having suffered a minor injury earlier on in the season, Ramsey hasn't produced the same confident performances as last season, even after a promising start to the campaign that comprised two goals in the first two games. It is possible to attribute this poor form to Ramsey's position on the pitch and this point is discussed in Wenger's recent interview on beIN Sport. Arsenal fans last season saw Ramsey score 16 goals, the majority of them often the result of late surging runs from deep. This season, however, Ramsey has been too eager to get further up the pitch, often ending up next to or past the striker, in an attempt to create goals and get on the end of moves. Incidentally, Arsenal fans saw earlier in the season how a change of position can affect the form of a player. After making the switch from his preferred number ten role to the left wing, Mesut Özil received much criticism for his dip in form. Though confidence and fitness undoubtedly have something to do with Ramsey's underwhelming season thus far, maybe so does playing slightly out of position, where it is easier for him to neglect his defensive duties.

Wenger has noticed Ramsey's increased tendency to push forward. Photograph: beIN Sports

It has already been a physically difficult season for Arsenal and United, and it will be revealing to see how both sides deal with the unfit Ramsey and the absent Blind in a bid to get back up the table. It seems that the international break has swayed the bout in Arsenal's favour, as they appear better equipped to deal with their problems thanks to their on-song Englishmen. As Chelsea and Man City kick off two hours before them on Saturday, at home to West Brom and Swansea respectively, it is likely that more pressure will be heaped upon what is an already vital match in the battle for a top four spot. The local bragging rights held by Arsenal and United for so long may have passed over to the blue side of their respective cities, but they will both give their all this weekend to come out victorious and kick start their campaign to once again become the footballing giants they were a decade ago.