Derby della moribund Madonnina

Mancini’s arrival heightens enthusiasm for a derby increasingly reliant on its illustrious history. 

Roberto Mancini faces a difficult start following his second appointment as the coach of Inter

                There was a time not so long ago when the world’s best players would do battle in the showpiece event of Italian football. Milan and Inter, constant stalwarts both at home and in Europe, would captivate the planet with their world-class players. Today the derby arguably reflects the state of Serie A more generally; both Inter and Milan are no longer exponents of elite European football and currently find themselves 9^th and 7^th respectively. Nonetheless, after modest starts both teams still harbour genuine Champions League ambitions, and with Roberto Mancini back as head coach of Inter, he will be looking to leapfrog his neighbours in the table.

               Two extremely poor performances against Parma and Hellas Verona was enough for Inter’s president Eric Thohir to finally lose patience with Walter Mazzari. The sacking is an interesting one. At times Inter have been woeful this season. Mazzari’s refusal to start matches with anything other than a 3-5-2 for example, made his team become far too predictable.  Yet throughout his reign, Inter’s performances have been littered with individual errors that are hard to place at just the manager’s door - these mistakes have been such a common occurrence this season that both Mauro Icardi and Juan Jesus have blamed Mazzari’s sacking on the players ahead of anyone else - thus begging the question as to whether Mancini will do any better with the same group of players at his disposal. In any case, the appointment of Mancini is a popular one amongst Inter fans. During Mazzari’s penultimate game for example – a 2-0 defeat away at Parma - Inter supporters unveiled a banner asking for their former manager to come home. Though Mancini has not been presented with the easiest of starts, facing both Milan and Roma in his first two games, Thohir may have timed Mancini’s appointment to perfection. Inter’s president clearly realises that there are quality players at Inter, and a Champions League spot would still be attainable if Mancini can steady the ship quickly, beginning with their match against Milan tomorrow.

            It is expected that Mancini will revert to a back four, a defensive tactic he has used often throughout his managerial career. Ranocchia, who has been in good form this season, should partner Juan at centre back, with Nemanja Vidic most likely to miss out from the back three that played against Verona. Problems may arise however at full back for Mancini. Though Nagatomo and Dodo (both of whom are considered specialist wing backs) were bought solely to fit in to Mazzari’s 3-5-2, Mancini’s hands are tied due to the absence of D’Ambrosini and Campagnaro through injury. Nagatomo and Dodo’s propensity to play slightly higher and wider will leave space next to the centre backs for Milan to exploit, and this could tempt Inzaghi in to start Torres. A natural number 9 and eager to impress, Torres will look to utilise any space in between and behind Inter’s back four.

Historically Mancini teams are associated with a 4-2-3-1 formation, but he can be flexible (just consider his 3-5-2 at Galatasaray) and his comments regarding Mateo Kovacic suggest that he will play a 4-3-1-2, allowing Kovacic to play as a number ten. Consequently, Inter fans can expect to see most of the play coming through Kovacic who Mancini claims is Inters most talented player. Mancini has already encouraged Inter to move the ball quicker during transition and so he is likely to pack the midfield with athleticism and power; Freddy Guarin, Yann M’Vila and ZdavkoKuzmanovic may provide the drive and dynamism needed to attack at speed andstart Mancini’s second reign in style. The most likely starters up front are Icardi and Palacio, with Danny Osvaldo starting from the bench. Whilst Icardi has been in good form this season, scoring 7 in 10 Serie A games, Palacio has struggled for form and is yet to score. There is an argument to play Osvaldo who, despite playing an intermittent role this season due to injury, is more athletic and combative than Palacio. Even though Osvaldo seems to suit Mancini’s preference of power and dynamism, Palacio’s unselfish work ethic should see him earn a starting berth come Sunday.

Mateo Kovacic is expected to blossom under the tutelage of Roberto Mancini

What is fascinating about this derby is that both teams are in a similar state of flux. Pippo Inzaghi’s Milan have been equally inconsistent of late and go into the derby in danger of extinguishing any early season excitement. Milan started the season well, winning their first two games, scoring plenty of goals and playing with an enthusiasm that had been absent under both Max Allegri and Clarence Seedorf. But old habits die hard, and despite Inzaghi’s attempts to recruit honest players into the Rossoneri squad, there are signs that Milan are slipping towards the standards of last season. Injuries have not been kind to them – Inzaghi has had to field eleven different starting teams already this season – and whilst they possess talent going forwards – Milan were the highest scorers in Serie A until Juventus’ 7-0 demolition of Parma two weeks ago - there is concern defensively. Milan are now expected to go into the derby without Alex, who suffered a thigh strain in training on Friday, but will be boosted by the return to the squad of Riccardo Montolivo, who broke his tibia last season. With Ignacio Abate potentially out as well, Milan look short at the back and Inter should be able to make the most of this. This defensive fragility may be further worsened by the potential loss of Nigel De Jong, who will face a late fitness test on Sunday.
Irrespective of De Jong’s fitness, Inzaghi is expected to go with a 4-3-2-1. Michael Essien (on the presumption that De Jong is not fit) and Sulley Muntari are likely to sit in front of the back four with the job of restricting ball supply into Inter’s Kovacic. In front of these two we will probably see Bonaventura from the right, El-Shawaary from the left and Menez through the middle, with Torres on his own up front. This system would allow Inzaghi to play a recognised number 9 who will look to stretch Inter’s back four. There are goals here for Milan. El-Shawaary has shown glimpses of the brilliant form he was in not so long ago, scoring a great goal against Sampdoria in the lead up to the international break and playing equally as well when he came on for Italy against Croatia a week later. Whilst on their day attacking talent such as Jeremy Menez, Keizuke Honda and Giacomo Bonaventura, are more than capable of opening up a defence that has been as leaky as Inter’s this season.

               
           This has the makings of an intriguing derby, not least because both teams possess attacking talent that is far greater than the defensive talent on show. Moreover, whilst the match may not currently showcase the quality seen in bygone times, there are players on both sides that have the potential to develop into world-class players. In truth there is not a great deal to choose between the two teams and the result could go either way. However the potential for Milan to lose Alex, Abate and De Jong will not fill Milan fans with confidence and considering the surge of excitement that so often comes with the appointment of a new manager, I expect to see Inter run out winners. Just.

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