Will superlative Southampton pass the tough two month test that awaits?

Ronald Koeman’s Southampton have been excellent so far this season, but they will have their top four credentials truly tested over the next two months. 

Real test begins now for Southampton

In the build up to Southampton’s clash with Manchester City this Sunday, there have been a number of articles discussing whether Ronald Koeman’s side can continue their fantastic form in the coming months in the face of a difficult run of fixtures. Most recently, Jeremy Wilson declared Southampton the ‘Barcelona’ of the Premier League. Although we should clearly consider this with a pinch of salt, his claims are not unsubstantiated. Like their Spanish counterparts, Ronald Koeman’s side sits in second place in the league. Despite losing 13 players in the summer, of whom five were first team regulars, Southampton seem to have improved on last year’s stellar season under Pochettino.

As Jeremy Wilson outlines, the structure and organization already in place at the club made what could have been a difficult transition incredibly smooth. Add to this the combination of a brilliant recruitment system and Ronald Koeman’s vast knowledge of the Dutch League, and it is easy to see why Southampton now boast a group of players that are arguably better than the ones they had last season. Indeed, considering the opening quarter of the season, the likes of Dusan Tadic and Graziano Pelle look set to improve on the attacking standards set by Ricky Lambert and Adam Lallana last season. Statistically, Southampton also have the best defence in the league. Conceding just six goals and keeping seven clean sheets in their first 12 games, signings such as Ryan Bertrand and Toby Alderweireld have more than played their part in Southampton’s push up the table since their arrival. Compare these facts with Southampton’s 8^th place finish last season and it is easy to understand why pundits and supporters alike are dreaming of Champions League football for Southampton. But whilst they have undoubtedly been a breath of fresh air so far this season, is it not a little premature to talk of Champions League football when only 12 games have been played? Just how realistic are Southampton’s chances of claiming that coveted fourth spot?  

At the moment, the answer is that we simply don’t know yet. This is not an attempt to diminish Southampton’s good performances so far this season. After all, you can only beat what is put in front of you. But until Southampton play against the top sides, any predictions of finishing in the top four are perhaps premature.

A look back at the results in the opening quarter of last season sheds some light as to why Southampton fans should be cautious. Up until this point of the 2013/14 season, Mauricio Pochettino’s Southampton had played only Liverpool from the clubs who finished the season inside the top 6 and had collected 22 points from teams who would eventually finish 8^th and below. Parallel to Pochettino’s Southampton last season, Ronald Koeman inherited a very similar set of fixtures this season, and up until now has played only Liverpool and Tottenham from the teams who finished inside last season’s top 6. Koeman’s men have played one extra game this season and amassed 26 points. Interestingly, after 11 games they had collected just three more points than Pochettino’s men in the previous season. There are of course some significant differences here; Southampton have been better both defensively and going forward this year, and sit higher in the league than they did under Pochettino at this stage of last season. However, in spite of Southampton’s improvements this season, it is interesting to note that the two managers started each season in a relatively similar manner.

Many seem to regard the Southampton team of this season as much more successful than last season because Pochettino’s side ultimately finished 8^th. Put simply, people have forgotten about how well they started last season and instead focus on the poor run of form between November and January; a period of eleven games in which Southampton played against four of the sides that would finish in the top six places; Arsenal, Chelsea twice, Manchester City and Everton. They collected just one point from all their matches against these sides, and nine points in the five games against teams that were to finish outside of the top 6. This season, beginning on Sunday and ending on Saturday February 7^th, Ronald Koeman’s side have a run of 12 games that very much echoes the difficult run of fixtures Southampton had this time last year. They will face Arsenal twice, Manchester United twice, and Everton and Manchester City once. They also travel to Jose Mourinho’s Chelsea three days after Boxing Day;

“Saints play Chelsea on 28 December and after that point, they will have a better idea of where they will realistically finish this season. It's a tough run of games up until (then) for them with City, Arsenal and Manchester United to play in the space of eight days” -  Matt Le Tissier speaking after the 1-1 draw with Aston Villa

This is a run of fixtures far more difficult than Koeman's opening 12 games and it is clear why Matt Le Tissier is urging caution. Southampton have been here before and for all their talent and ability, we can only more accurately speculate about just how good they are until they are tested against the best sides in the country. Their achievements so far this season have been impressive, but any talk of a Champions League place should be put on hold until well after Christmas. This a great time to be a Southampton supporter and the very fact they are being mentioned in the same sentence as clubs from England’s elite is a testament to how far they have come.

Whilst it is refreshing to see a side breaking up the traditional top four, can we call them the English Barcelona? The turn of the New Year should provide us with an answer.